Does anyone else feel like they are barely holding on? The festive period in FPL is a test of endurance as much as skill. We are navigating rotation, injuries, and the sheer mental fatigue of back-to-back deadlines. If you are staring at a red arrow from the last gameweek, take a breath. GW19 offers a distinct opportunity to pivot. The data this week is screaming one thing: the template is shifting, and those who react to the fixture swings now will be the ones green-arrowing into the New Year.

Key Takeaways

• Phil Foden is the form player of the league: With a form score of 10.0 and 93 total points, going without him against Sunderland is a massive rank risk.
• The Semenyo Trap: Despite being owned by 46.9% of managers, his upcoming fixtures are a statistical nightmare—this is a data-driven sell signal.
• Creativity on a Budget: Rayan Cherki’s expected assists (xA) per 90 of 0.55 is elite, offering a cheap route into the City attack.

Is Phil Foden now 'Essential' for Gameweek 19?

The Short Answer: Yes, his form of 10.0 combined with a fixture against Sunderland makes him the safest captaincy contender and a must-have asset.

We talk a lot about 'buying low', but sometimes you just have to pay up for the hot hand. Phil Foden (£9.0m) is currently that player. He sits in 40.9% of teams, pushing him firmly into 'template' territory, and for good reason. His form over the last few gameweeks is a perfect 10.0, and he has racked up 7 goals and 2 assists.

However, as a data analyst, I have to look under the bonnet. When I opened the FPL Stats Lab Player Comparison tool to measure him against Bukayo Saka (£10.3m), I noticed something interesting. Saka actually boasts superior underlying numbers per 90 minutes:

• Saka: 0.64 xGI per 90 (Expected Goal Involvement)
• Foden: 0.50 xGI per 90

Technically, Saka is the more sustainable asset. Foden has scored 7 goals from an xG of just 4.51, a significant overperformance that usually suggests regression is coming. But here is where context is king. Foden’s next fixture is Sunderland (A), followed by home games against Chelsea and Brighton. In this specific moment, Foden's finishing is running hot, and he is facing a defence that will likely struggle to contain him. While Saka is consistent, Foden is explosive. Betting against a 40% owned player in this form against a promoted side is how you ruin your gameweek before it starts.

Should I Sell Antoine Semenyo Before the Fixture Turn?

The Short Answer: Yes. The data indicates this is the perfect time to 'sell high' as he enters a brutal run of fixtures starting with Chelsea, Arsenal, and Spurs.

This is the hardest move to make in FPL: selling a player who has served you well. Antoine Semenyo (£7.7m) has been a hero for many of us, sitting on 108 total points and 9 goals. He is in nearly half of all FPL squads (46.9%). Selling him feels counter-intuitive, almost ungrateful.

But we play for future points, not past ones. I checked the FPL Stats Lab Fixture Difficulty Planner to see what lies ahead for Bournemouth, and it is a sea of red. Their next three games are Chelsea (A), Arsenal (H), and Spurs (H). Following that, they face Brighton and Liverpool.

Even with his impressive stats—an xG of 6.16 suggests his goals are largely deserved—the quality of opposition is about to skyrocket. Against low blocks, Semenyo thrives. Against elite defences like Arsenal (who have conceded just 8 goals all season), his output will inevitably suffer. The 'Template' will likely hold him for one week too many, hoping for a return. By selling now, you are effectively shorting the market and reallocating those funds to a player entering a green run.

Who is the Best Mid-Price Differential (<15% Ownership)?

The Short Answer: Rayan Cherki (£6.7m) is the standout statistical gem; his creative numbers rival premium assets, offering a budget-friendly route into the City attack.

If we are selling Semenyo, who do we buy? I wanted to find a replacement that offered high upside without breaking the bank. I turned to the FPL Stats Lab Player Watchlist to see which mid-price assets the algorithm was flagging. It surfaced two fascinating names that the crowd is largely ignoring.

The first is Rayan Cherki (£6.7m). At just 11.4% ownership, he is a 'moderate' differential, but his stats are premium. What caught my eye immediately was his creativity: an Expected Assists (xA) per 90 of 0.55. To put that in perspective, that is nearly double Saka’s xA/90 of 0.29. He is creating over half an expected assist every single game. With Sunderland up next, pairing him with Foden covers both the goalscoring and creative output of the City attack.

The extreme differential option is Chelsea's Enzo Fernández (£6.5m), owned by just 9.4%. His data is confusing but intriguing: an xG of 6.39 but only 4 goals scored. He is getting into incredible positions (likely penalties or set pieces boosting this), but his finishing has let him down. However, with an xGI per 90 of 0.58, he is statistically due a massive haul if he can just find his shooting boots. You can compare these differentials side-by-side using our Player Comparison tool to decide which risk profile suits your rank.

Answering the Big Questions Haunting the FPL Community This Week

Is it worth taking a hit to bring in a Man City midfielder?

Given the fixture disparity, absolutely. If you are moving from a Bournemouth asset (Semenyo) to a City asset (Foden or Cherki) for a -4, you are betting on a fixture swing. Bournemouth face Chelsea; City face Sunderland. The projected points difference between those two fixtures alone often covers the cost of the hit. The data supports aggression here.

Should I be worried about Saka's 'low' goal involvement recently?

Not at all. While his form score is a modest 6.0 compared to Foden's 10.0, his underlying volume remains elite. An xGI of 8.88 is the highest among the midfielders we analysed. He is underperforming his expected data slightly, which for a player of Saka's quality, usually means a correction (goals) is imminent. He remains a 'season keeper'.

Want to run your own scenarios? Visit FPL Stats Lab to access our full suite of tools and plan your Gameweek 19 strategy with confidence.