It is the transfer no FPL manager ever really wants to make. Spending a precious free transfer on a goalkeeper usually implies something has gone horribly wrong—an injury, a suspension, or a run of form so disastrous it can no longer be ignored. But as we approach Gameweek 21, the landscape between the sticks is shifting. We have premium assets facing a sea of red fixtures, budget gems suddenly looking shaky on the underlying numbers, and the usual chaos of post-festive rotation. The temptation to 'set and forget' your Number 1 is strong, but in the second half of the season, ignoring the data in goal can be the difference between a green arrow and a grey one. Let’s cut through the noise and look at the numbers.

Key Takeaways

• Roefs is defying gravity: The Sunderland stopper has conceded 19 goals from an Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) of nearly 28—data suggests regression is imminent.
• Raya's fixtures turn ugly: The template Arsenal keeper faces Liverpool and Man Utd next, posing a dilemma for 34.5% of managers.
• Save points are king: Roefs leads the league with 3.5 saves per 90, offering a safety net even when clean sheets vanish.

Is Roefs the Best Value Goalkeeper for Gameweek 21?

The Short Answer: Roefs is currently the highest-scoring keeper (93 points) and offers huge save potential (3.5/90), but his massive statistical overperformance suggests he is a 'sell high' candidate rather than a safe long-term buy.

Sunderland’s Roefs has been the darling of the mid-price bracket recently. Priced at £4.9m and sitting on 93 total points, he looks like the obvious solution to any goalkeeping crisis. However, whenever a goalkeeper outperforms their team's defensive ability this drastically, alarm bells start ringing in the FPL Stats Lab.

I was tempted to bring him in myself to free up funds, but before pulling the trigger, I opened the FPL Stats Lab Player Comparison tool to look under the bonnet. The comparison was startling. Roefs has conceded just 19 goals this season, yet his Expected Goals Conceded (xGC) stands at a staggering 27.96. That is an overperformance of nearly 9 goals. In layman's terms? He has been incredibly lucky, or playing out of his skin in a way that is rarely sustainable over 38 games.

While his 3.5 saves per 90 is an elite metric—the highest among the keepers analysed—it indicates a Sunderland defence that is conceding a high volume of shots. Reliance on save points is a dangerous game. If that luck turns, and the goals start flowing in line with the xGC data, those 15-point hauls will quickly turn into 2-pointers. Data-driven managers should be wary of chasing these points after they've already happened.

Should I Sell David Raya Before the Fixture Turn?

The Short Answer: Raya remains the defensive gold standard with an xGC/90 of just 0.75, but his upcoming fixtures (Liverpool, Man Utd) limit his ceiling, making a switch to Pickford or Donnarumma a viable luxury transfer.

The "Raya Dilemma" is dominating the chat in my mini-leagues. At 34.5% ownership, David Raya is the definition of a 'template' pick. He has kept 9 clean sheets and anchors the league's best defence. However, the anxiety is building. I checked the FPL Stats Lab Fixture Difficulty Planner, and the sea of green has well and truly dried up for Arsenal.

The Gunners face Liverpool (H), followed by a tricky trip to Nottingham Forest, and then Man Utd (H). In isolation, Arsenal can keep a clean sheet against anyone, but three difficult games in a row is statistically likely to damage his output. His stats are undeniably elite—his 0.75 xGC per 90 is nearly half that of Jordan Pickford (1.5)—but clean sheets are often a product of fixtures as much as ability.

If you have two free transfers and no other fires to put out, moving off Raya could be a savvy way to dodge a potential dry spell. However, selling the goalkeeper of the best defence in the league is always a risk. If you keep him, you are banking on clean sheets; he only makes 1.6 saves per 90, meaning if Arsenal concede once, he likely blanks. This is the classic floor vs. ceiling debate.

Who Are the Best Differential Goalkeepers (<10% Ownership)?

The Short Answer: Guglielmo Vicario (6.9%) offers the most stable route for a differential, performing exactly in line with his underlying data, while Donnarumma (10.1%) is a premium differential with a mixed fixture run.

If you are chasing rank, your goalkeeper choice can be a subtle but effective way to differentiate. Everyone has Raya; almost nobody in the top 10k has Guglielmo Vicario. Sitting at just 6.9% ownership, the Spurs stopper is priced at a reasonable £4.8m.

When I ran the numbers in our Player Comparison tool, Vicario emerged as a surprisingly stable option. Unlike Roefs, who is defying the data, Vicario is performing almost exactly as expected: 24 goals conceded from an xGC of 25.3. He is averaging 2.75 saves per 90, which is a healthy middle ground—enough to rack up save points, but playing for a 'Big 6' side that can deliver clean sheets. His upcoming fixtures—Bournemouth (A), West Ham (H), Burnley (A)—offer a genuine chance for returns.

Then there is Gianluigi Donnarumma. At £5.7m, he is a premium investment, but with only 10.1% ownership, he acts as a differential into the Man City defence. He has 8 clean sheets in 17 starts, and his xGC per 90 of 1.07 is second only to Raya among the top options. If you trust City to tighten up, he is the high-ceiling play, though his price point is awkward for many team structures.

Pickford vs. Donnarumma: The Premium Showdown

Many of you have asked specifically about pivoting from Raya to another premium option. Let's look at the two heavyweights: Jordan Pickford (£5.6m) vs. Donnarumma (£5.7m).

This is where I use the FPL Stats Lab Fixture Difficulty Planner in tandem with the underlying stats to find the edge. Here is what the data says:

• The Case for Pickford: The Everton man is a save machine. He has racked up 54 saves (2.7 per 90) compared to Donnarumma's 36. Even when Everton concede, Pickford often salvages a point or two through save volume. His fixtures—Wolves (H), Villa (A), Leeds (H)—are a mixed bag, but home games against Wolves and Leeds look promising for clean sheets.
• The Case for Donnarumma: Man City's defence is statistically superior (1.07 xGC/90 vs Everton's 1.5). However, Donnarumma makes fewer saves (2.12 per 90). He is reliant on the clean sheet. With Brighton (H) and Man Utd (A) coming up, the clean sheet probability is decent but not guaranteed.

My verdict? If you want safety and consistency, Pickford's save points provide a higher floor. If you are chasing massive upside and believe City will go on one of their famous defensive runs, Donnarumma is the play. You can compare their full projected points over the next 5 weeks using our Player Comparison tool.

Ultimately, Gameweek 21 requires a cool head. Don't chase Roefs' past points unless you believe Sunderland can sustain a statistical miracle. If you stick with Raya, accept the tough fixtures. If you twist, make sure your new keeper has the fixtures to justify the transfer.